As a result of recent seismic researches, new seismic intensity maps are developed for many regions all over the world, and updated in the design codes. In moderate seismic regions, such as Hungary and Brazil, this often resulted in a drastically increased seismicity to be considered in structural design. Due to the low number of available seismic records, these intensities are obtained based on the evaluation of historical data and descriptions, where the uncertainties are relatively high, the relevance to the historic architecture is low and the real structural behaviour is totally left out of consideration and thus the reliability of the design seismic intensities is often questioned. To answer this question the determination of seismic intensity should invoke a method with the stochastic analysis of real structures.
The objective of this work is to adopt, update and develop a stochastic method for seismic intensity determination in moderate seismicity regions and to determine intensity of historical seismic events in Hungary and Brazil. The research will involve the following subtasks:
- literature review on seismicity of Brazil and Hungary; historical architecture: structural systems, materials; static and dynamic non-linear modelling of historical structures;
- collect data on historical buildings relevant to the investigated seismic events; evaluation of historical design philosophies;
- collect available data on seismic events: seismicity, consequences, damages, fatalities;
- selection on representative buildings/structures;
- develop numerical models for the representative structures, capable to model material and geometrical non-linearity and applicable to static and dynamic analysis;
- develop stochastic model for the seismic event and for the structure, using the collected data and available description methods;
- complete non-linear analysis, damage analysis and reliability analysis;
- result evaluation; determination of probable intensity of the seismic event.